One of the most impactful books I’ve ever read. Overall, the books of the Incerto have changed my thinking on a number of topics, but this book has probably had the largest impact.
Essentially, the book is all about "how to convert knowledge into action and figure out what knowledge is worth”. What that really means is an in-depth examination of where in our world we apply false, naive models (typically Gaussian, or bell-curve type models), and the impact they can have.
It goes further, to talk about how we can reduce the number of these occurrences by alternative prediction methods (using fractal distributions) and mitigating our exposure to true Black Swans, which are "outliers of extreme impact", or “unknown unknowns”.
Want to get my latest book notes? Subscribe to my newsletter to get one email a week with new book notes, blog posts, and favorite articles.